- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
- CHARTISTS MUST PUT ALL BIAS ASIDE AND LET THE CHARTS DO THE TALKING OR WE'LL SEE ONLY WHAT WE WANT TO SEE
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Tuesday 20 December 2011

Distant Sleigh Bells

No post yesterday as my futures and forex charting package was down. The question today is whether Santa is going to show up for a rally this year, as we're running out of time now. There is definitely some reason to think that we might have made a significant low yesterday, as ES put in a slightly lower low, on positive divergence, and we now have a very nice double or W bottom setup there which would target 1255 ES on a break over 1225:
There is a similar setup on GBPUSD, though that's a bit bigger:
EURUSD looks weaker, as you'd expect really, but there's definitely room for more bounce within the greater move down:
My concern is that there is an obvious downside target on SPX here, and we haven't reached it yet. That target is rising support from the October low in the 1190-5 area, and a touch and reversal there would confirm that a triangle is forming on the SPX daily chart:
On the SPX 15min chart we have a clear declining channel, with channel resistance in the 1218 area at the moment:
There's a similar declining channel on RUT, with channel resistance in the 726 area at the moment:
For direction today I'm watching the short term trendlines on the ES 15min chart. A break above declining resistance from 1225 would look bullish, and a break below rising support from yesterday's low, currently at 1206, would suggest another move down:
Is there room for another big move down here? Well there certainly is on the Vix, which is the strangest chart that I am watching at the moment. Here it is on the daily chart with bollinger bands, showing a setup I'd normally associate with topping out after a move up on equities. In effect the inverse correlation between Vix and equities seems to have reversed at the moment, which is strange indeed:
What I'd like to see here is a break of resistance on equities that should then be followed by a modest Santa rally. That would set up what should be some very nice short opportunities in the New Year. That looks promising at the moment but equities need a boost into the open. I'll be watching that ES 15min chart for direction.

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