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Tuesday 15 June 2010

Lines in the sand

There has been a lot of very bullish talk after last week's rise, and I'm fairly bullish too at the moment, on balance at least, but I was still expecting a bounce off strong resistance at 1102 ES yesterday and we got one. Now we see whether the bull case has real legs in the next few weeks.

Upside resistance remains at 1102 ES, and a break with confidence at that level would be a strong sign that the bulls are back in the saddle for the moment. I'm thinking that we may well see more retracement today though, and am looking mainly at downside support levels that should not be broken if this rally is to be sustained this week.

ES has been trading for weeks within a large and not particularly classical rectangle. Having reached the top of the rectangle yesterday, from a pure patterns perspective, the next target is the bottom of that rectangle at 1037 ES. There are two very important support / resistance levels within the rectangle and we bounced off the top of the pattern to the higher of those levels at 1084 yesterday. I have rising support from the recent low at 1072 - 1074 ES, and if ES trades any lower than that then I will be considering 1037 ES as a serious short term target:


On EURUSD we have seen a big move up, which seems at the moment to be within a broadening ascending wedge. The lower trendline should be strong support and any move below it, currently at 1.215, will be a signal that this rally might well be unravelling:


GBPUSD has also been trading within a sloppy looking rectangle for some weeks. It broke upwards from it yesterday, which was bullish medium term at least, and is currently trading within a shorter term rising channel. A break of rising support within that channel would be a signal that we may see a deeper retracement than expected across the board, and so any break below 1.4585 would be a strong warning signal:


CADUSD is now in a strong uptrend going back three weeks and more and has a slightly sloppy looking rising channel with a strong support trendline. A move below 0.947 would break that support trendline:


I'll be watching these USD currency pairs very carefully today. The last serious move down on ES was signalled by the USD currency pairs breaking rising support trendlines, and if rising support on ES is to be broken this week, then I would expect to see the same again.
Posted by Springheel Jack at 07:17
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