In my last post on Monday 9th June I was looking at the bull setup on Crypto and that was looking very promising, and still looks promising, but I did note that Solana still needed to break back over the 50dma daily middle band and the daily middle band and convert them to support to open the upside.
That didn’t happen, with a closing break over the middle band that rejected the next day. From there Solana made a slightly lower low in the 140-3 support area. Solana then retested the daily middle band again yesterday, and so far is failing there again.
SOLUSD daily chart:
So is there an obvious bear scenario on Crypto here? Yes, and I was talking about that on my daily premarket videos as Solana was testing the daily middle band last week.
That bear scenario is clearest on Solana, which is the reason I am leading with that today. My concern last week was that if Solana was to fail hard at the daily middle band, then that might complete an H&S pattern that on a subsequent sustained break below 140 would look for a target at a retest of the June low at 95.24. That H&S pattern is now fully formed, but has not yet broken down.
If that H&S breaks down and makes target I’d be leaning towards that retest making the second low of a large double bottom.
SOLUSD 60min chart:
Bitcoin is also currently under the daily middle band, currently at 105858. I would also note though that since the break up from the April lows, the 50dma, currently at 104090 has been main support, and that is currently still holding. A clear closing break below would be a good indication that this short term bear scenario on Crypto may well be playing out.
BTCUSD daily chart:
So what would be the target for a down move on Bitcoin here? Well I’ve drawn in a part-formed bull flag falling wedge on the chart below and I have flag support in the 100k area. That’s the level I’d be watching.
BTCUSD 60min chart:
Ethereum has delivered some very strong tests of double resistance at the daily middle band, currently at 2579, and the 200dma slightly higher currently at 2625, but is currently back below both. It is still currently holding above 50dma support, currently at 2425, and if that breaks, that would again be a good indication that this short term bear scenario on Crypto may well be playing out.
ETHUSD daily chart:
So what would the target on a break down on Ethereum be? Well on this scenario I would be thinking that an alternate right shoulder on the larger IHS would be forming, with an ideal target in the 2000-2200 area.
ETHUSD 60min chart:
If this bear scenario plays out, all the target areas I have mentioned would be consistent with the larger bull scenario that I laid out last week as long as those target levels were not broken with confidence.
There is another point to consider here of course, namely that Crypto is still very positively correlated with equities, and consequently that the bull scenario on Crypto hasn’t been playing out so far in part because equities are also still pinned to an inflection point area here. If we do see this bear scenario play out on Crypto then I’d expect that to happen as equities declined as well, though more on the scale of Bitcoin than Solana of course. We’ll see.
So far this year I have been and am still leaning towards seeing weakness in the first half of the year and renewed strength in the second half of 2025, with a very possible bull market high on Crypto pencilled in close to the end of the year. That scenario would be a good match with past Crypto bull markets. Is it possible that I am mistaken? Always, but we can only ever try to identify the higher probability paths in the future. Only time can show us the path that is actually taken. Still, I’m with Confucious who said ‘study the past, if you would divine the future’. - 22nd May 2025 - IDEALLY THE PATH FROM HERE TAKES CRYPTO INTO A BULL MARKET HIGH IN OR CLOSE TO DECEMBER 2025
If you’d like to see more of these posts and the other Crypto videos and information I post, please subscribe for free to my Crypto substack. I also do a premarket video every day on Crypto at 9.05am EST. If you’d like to see those I post the links every morning on my twitter, and the videos are posted shortly afterwards on my Youtube channel.
I'm also to be found at Arion Partners, though as a student rather than as a teacher. I've been charting Crypto for some years now, but am learning to trade and invest in them directly, and Arion Partners are my guide around a space that might reasonably be compared to the Wild West in one of their rougher years.
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