Inflection Point Here on Bitcoin

Back in my post on 11th April I called the likely start of a strong rally which we then saw.

Back in my post on 12th May I called for new all time highs on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and laid out possible IHS scenarios on both Solana (SOLUSD) and Ethereum (ETHUSD), looking for ideal right shoulder lows on Solana in the 125.43 area and on Ethereum in the 2074.27 area. That hasn’t gone quite as I drew then but essentially both are still running that scenario, though Ethereum has now reached the IHS target.

Back in my post on 23rd June I called the likely lows on those right shoulders made on Solana at 126.09 and on Ethereum at 2113.65, and was looking for that IHS scenario on both to start to play out.

Back in my post on 18th July I was looking at the IHS that had since broken up on Ethereum and the progress made towards the IHS neckline on Solana.

In my post on 22nd July I was looking for some retracement after the IHS on Solana had broken up, and looking also at the possibility that a setup for a hard fail might form in that retracement.

In my post on 4th Aug I was looking at that retracement on Solana and looking for higher highs soon which we saw. I was expecting Ethereum to reach the IHS target at 4109.05 which we saw.

In my post on 19th August I was looking at a likely retracement starting on both equities and Crypto and we’ve seen that. There is now a clear inflection point here where Crypto could rally back into retests of the recent highs, or break down further into the next targets.

In my last post on 25th August I was looking at a double top setup on Bitcoin, the weekly RSI 5 sell signal that had just fixed, and looking at the weekly middle band, currently at 110,115.55, as the key level that might prevent that double top reaching the target in the 99k to 100k area.

After that post the weekly RSI 5 sell signal reached the possible near miss target as Bitcoin closed slightly below the weekly middle band at the end of that week. That failed to follow through though afterwards and Bitcoin closed back above the weekly middle band last week and has continued to trade above it since.

BTCUSD weekly chart:

As of this morning on the hourly chart Bitcoin has both bull and bear scenarios of decent quality. On the bear side Bitcoin broke down from a double top with a target in the 99k to 100k area and that may still make target.

On the bull side a possible IHS has formed and on a sustained break back over 113.4k would have a target in the 119.8k area. If Bitcoin gets that far I’d be leaning towards it following through into a retest of the all time high at 124.5k.

BTCUSD 60min chart:

There is still some significant upside resistance on Bitcoin though, as it broke below the 50dma, currently at 114,840.48, and the daily middle band, currently at 111,465.02. To get back up to the highs both of these need to be broken and converted back to support. Bitcoin has recovered back over the daily middle band in the last couple of days but 50dma is still a big resistance level above.

BTCUSD daily chart:

In my last post I was also looking at a possible double top setup on Ethereum that I thought, and still think, might deliver if Bitcoin followed through into a backtest of 100k. On a sustained break below 4063.26 the double top target would be in the 3170 to 3330 area. That would get Ethereum close to rising support from the April low.

ETHUSD 60min chart:

Solana also has a possible short term double top setup here, and a decent looking resistance trendline currently in the 221-2 area. This is an important area because the possible IHS I was looking at on 12th May completed and broke up in July with a target in the 282 area. To get there this year Solana will need to break up through that trendline.

On the bear side there is a possible small double top setup that on a sustained break below 194.22 would have a target in the 169-171 area.

SOLUSD 60min chart:

I’m keeping an open mind on short term direction here but historically the lean is bullish this week.

I posted the following note at the end of my post on 13th Jan:

My preferred scenario here is that we see a bullish consolidation either now or soon on Crypto that takes a few months and sets up the next big leg up on Crypto into a possible bull market high in late 2025.

On this scenario we should soon start another leg up into a possible bull market high around December.

Since I started doing daily videos on Crypto early last year I’ve got Crypto direction right most of the time and more so than any other analyst anywhere that I’m aware of. I’m a very good analyst and all three of these instruments are very classical chartist friendly. I’m not much of a marketer though, and the free Crypto substack I set up last August still has less than 200 readers. I’d like to increase that readership and invite any suggestions on how I could do that.

I am thinking about setting up a second YouTube Crypto channel and recording videos giving likely market direction without requiring the viewers to have some knowledge of technical analysis to understand the videos. Comments on that and other suggestions very welcome.

If you’d like to see more of these posts and the other Crypto videos and information I post, please subscribe for free to my Crypto substack. I also do a premarket video every day on Crypto at 9.05am EST. If you’d like to see those I post the links every morning on my twitter, and the videos are posted shortly afterwards on my Youtube channel.