Taking Stock On Crypto

This is my last post for 2024, and this is a good opportunity to have a bigger picture look at where we are in the current bull market run on Crypto, before I get on to the shorter term setup for the next few weeks. My crystal ball has been mislaid for the moment in an unfortunate dry cleaning snafu, but I will do what I can in the meantime using historical price action and math.

I wanted to show you all my much bigger picture Bitcoin (BTCUSD) weekly log scale chart vs NDX, which is really a very interesting chart. I will quickly go through some of the highlights from this chart

I don’t use log scale much, and that’s because unless I can see decent three touch trendlines forming on a log scale chart then I will always use the standard scale, unless I am simply looking at the scale of price movement over the chart period. Most log scale charts do not yield decent three touch trendlines or patterns.

Bitcoin works very well on a log scale chart, which is just as well, as otherwise no longer term chart of Bitcoin would be useful for much. There are multiple three touch trendlines, decent patterns, and even a perfect bull flag channel forming 2021-3.

So what are the key takeaways from this chart going back to 2014?

1. Bitcoin has been significantly positively correlated with equity indices so far, and in particular there are no obvious sharp declines on equity indices on the chart where Bitcoin didn’t follow suit. This is an issue because next year on equity indices may well be turbulent, not necessarily overall bearish, but turbulent.

2. Now any decent statistician would tell you that a sample size of three is too few to draw strong conclusions, but there are two prior bull market highs on this chart, with the first bull market high in Q4 2013, and the next two shown in Q4 2017 and Q4 2021 respectively. That at minimum has us leaning towards seeing the next bull market high around Q4 2025.

3. Both of the last bull market highs in 2017 and 2021 reached the 90 level on the weekly RSI 14, and generated weekly RSI 14 sell signals which both made the full target at the 30 level on the RSI 14. There is a decent chance we will see the same at the next bull market high.

Also worth noting is that the last six month move of the bull market in 2010-3 took price up about 700%, very much a minimum number as that full bull run started at close to zero in 2010. The 2015-7 run took price up from about $230 to $19,500, a rise of just under 8500%. The third bull run 2018-21 took price up from $3,200 to $68,700, a rise of just under 2150%. The current bull run from the low in late 2022 has run so far from a low in the $15k area to a high at $108.4k area, a rise of 722% so far and modest by the scale of the three predecessors.

Given that there is a very strong tendency historically to make significant highs and lows close to the end (mainly) or start (less often) of any year, we might spend much of early 2025 retracing while forming a larger bull flag for the historically likely last bull move higher into the end of 2025. As turbulence on equities may well be concentrated in the first half of 2025, that could be a good fit there.

Historically there is therefore a lean to expect the current bull market on Crypto to top out in late 2025 or early 2026 at a price considerably higher than the current $108.4k high. That’s just a lean, but a solid lean with good historical basis.

BTCUSD weekly (LOG) vs NDX:

Moving on to the shorter term, Bitcoin still has an open daily RSI 14 sell signal that has not yet made target and that I am still expecting to make target, though not necessarily directly from here. If we are to see a deeper retracement there is a cluster of big support levels around 75,000, with the 200 dma currently at 71,537, the backtest of the broken March 2024 high at 73.8k and the weekly middle band currently at 77.5k. This would be an attractive target area.

BTCUSD daily chart:

As it happens, the H&S that I have been watching form on Bitcoin in recent weeks completed and broke down yesterday with a target in the 76k area. The pattern may fail and reject back to the high of course, but both the H&S and the case for reaching that target are decent quality, and I’m thinking that might well fit forming a bull flag in the early months of next year before the last leg up in this Crypto bull market.

BTCUSD 60min chart:

On Solana (SOLUSD) the daily RSI 14 sell signal has already reached target of course, with a nice test of the weekly middle band currently in the 175 area. A decent quality H&S has formed and broken down with a target in the 145 area. That too is a decent pattern, though I am wondering if the decline may finish at the 200dma, currently at 169 and reachable without a conviction break of the weekly middle band.

SOLUSD daily chart:

On Ethereum (ETHUSD) the daily RSI 14 sell signal has not yet reached target so at least some more downside looks likely. There is decent support again not far below at the 200dma, currently at 2984, and the weekly middle band, currently at 2948.

ETHUSD daily chart:

On the Ethereum hourly chart a well formed double top has already broken down with a target in the 2900 area, and I think that target has an good chance of being reached.

ETHUSD 60min chart:

The issue with these downside targets is that these three have all been moving in the same direction in the second half of December, but at different speeds, so that Bitcoin, which has held up best so far, may only be able to make the H&S target there in the event that Solana and Ethereum both break well below their 200dmas. In effect there are two obvious target areas, with the 200dma on Solana and the 200dma and double top target on Ethereum making up the first target area, and the H&S targets on Bitcoin and Solana making up the second and lower target area. Very good odds we see the higher target areas reached, and still decent odds that we see an extension from there down to the lower target areas.

Everyone have a great New Year’s Eve and I wish you all a happy and prosperous 2025. I have a strong feeling that it is going to be a very interesting year. :-)

If you’d like to see more of these posts and the other Crypto videos and information I post, please subscribe for free to my Crypto substack.

I do a premarket video every day on Crypto at 9.15am EST. If you’d like to see those I post the links every morning on my twitter, and the videos are posted shortly afterwards on my Youtube channel.

I'm also to be found at Arion Partners, though as a student rather than as a teacher. I've been charting Crypto for some years now, but am learning to trade and invest in them directly, and Arion Partners are my guide around a space that might reasonably be compared to the Wild West in one of their rougher years.

Flagging Equity Markets

In my last post on Friday 20th December I was looking at the very likely rally that I called that day in my video before the open and that we saw start that day on equity indices and Crypto, and I said the following then about that:

‘How long might this rally last? Well given that today is 20th December I’m thinking this rally may well take us into Xmas and fairly shortly thereafter into lower lows. We shall see. ‘

Obviously today is now 30th December, tomorrow is the last trading day of the year, and as I was saying on Friday 20th December, I was expecting the rally to fail into lower lows shortly after Xmas. That may well be in progress now.

In my premarket video on Friday morning I was looking at a small double top on ES/SPX that I thought might well play out, and that delivered too. The question here is whether there is anything more to come in this rally, or whether we are going to see lower lows directly.

Let’s have a look at the rally.

The rising wedge from the August low broke down on the move after FOMC, and I’m looking for a topping pattern before lower lows. The two obvious options were either to form the right shoulder on an H&S or to retest the all time high to make the second high of a double top.

For now, SPX has backtested broken rising wedge support and the daily middle band and formed a decent quality right shoulder. This is a nice topping setup and SPX may well just fail here, though there is still a chance that we might see a break back over the daily middle band that could set up a retest of the all time high.

SPX daily chart:

QQQ, which led the last move up, was the strongest on the decline after FOMC, and recovered back over the daily middle band quickly. On Friday QQQ closed back on the daily middle band and on an obvious inflection point. There is no obvious reversal pattern formed here, but if a lower low from here is just forming an overall bull flag, that doesn’t matter too much.

QQQ daily chart:

One thing that has been very obvious on this rally is that it has mostly been on Tech, with DIA, IWM, DAX & ESTX50 just building what look like modest bear flags from the low. DIA has not come anywhere close to a backtest of the daily middle band and unless we see all time high retests on SPX and QQQ a backtest of the daily middle band looks ambitious.

There is no obvious reversal pattern here though it we were to see a failure directly from here there would be a valid (though ugly) H&S setup that on a sustained break below the 425 area would look for the 393 area. The pattern is not a pretty one though and in my experience that makes it less likely to make that target.

DIA daily chart:

IWM hasn’t rallied much from the low and already had a reversal pattern formed at the last high. That double top has broken down with a target in the 206-9 range and the rally has just backtested that broken double top support. This chart is strongly favoring a direct fail from here into that target area.

IWM daily chart:

On the SPX hourly chart the H&S setup looks good, and a sustained break below the neckline in the 5820 area would have a target in the 5575 area. That would be between a 50% and 61.8% retracement of the rising wedge from the August low, which is pretty standard for a bullish retracement. It’s an attractive target.

SPX 60min chart:

I’ve been talking the last few weeks about a larger retracement that would likely be coming early in 2025 and this is a decent setup for that retracement. As I write the setup favors heading lower directly from here or a bit higher, though the light trading and some positive divergence on the 15min charts on the indices might hold prices up until the start of 2025.

Overall I’m not leaning bullish for 2025. The last two years have been strong, valuations look very full, and there is a lot of uncertainty about next year. I’m thinking this might be one of the most interesting years on the markets that anyone can remember, and boredom tends to favor the bulls. We’ll see how that develops.

If you like my analysis and would like to see more, please take a free subscription at my chartingthemarkets substack, where I publish these posts first.

I also do a premarket video every day on equity indices, bonds, currencies, energies, precious commodities and other commodities at 8.45am EST. If you’d like to see those I post the links every morning on my twitter, and the videos are posted shortly afterwards on my Youtube channel.

Waiting For The Worms

In my post yesterday I was looking at the possible bull flag setups on SPX, DIA and IWM, and today of course we have FOMC.

Those flags all ended yesterday on an encouraging note but overall this very much looks like an inflection point as we are coming into FOMC and it may well be that FOMC today determines the direction of the break from this.

The Fed is expected to cut rates 0.25% today and everyone seems very certain that will happen. I am assuming that is because the Fed have indicated that will be the case informally as to be honest, given the recent inflation and job numbers, and the uncertainty over tariffs next month, they might logically be expected to leave rates unchanged or raise them.

Nonetheless the Fed has a long history of supporting equity bulls and while in theory the Fed Chairs have spines, the historical evidence in recent decades for the existence of those spines isn’t compelling. I’m assigning an 80% probability that they cut rates today and that the equity indices react positively to that.

On SPX my triangle support was broken briefly twice yesterday but that formed a small double bottom looking for the triangle resistance area and a 15min RSI 14 buy signal was fixed at the close.

SPX 15min chart:

On Dow the possible bull flag falling channel still looks good and there was another 15min RSI 14 buy signal fixed at the close.

DIA 15min chart:

On IWM the possible bull flag falling megaphone again was looking good at the close.

IWM 15min chart:

Looking at the overnight action on ES and the setup there the small double bottom formed that mirrors the one on SPX has broken up overnight so, at the moment, a test of triangle resistance on both today looks likely.

ES Mar 60min chart::

I’m hoping to see more upside on US indices, maybe into Xmas and, if not, then likely into January, though there should be a larger retracement in that period somewhere and that could be starting here.

The closer we come to inauguration the more I’m also going to be looking at the incoming administration and the policies that are being talked about for the first 100 days of the new administration. Tariffs, Ukraine and others may make this one of the most interesting years on the markets that anyone can remember.

Presidential election years tend to be bullish historically, the years after not so much, and equity indices are up a lot over the last two years. I am doubtful about equity markets seeing much upside next year as valuations look very stretched going into a year where the news stream is likely to be turbulent, and interest rates may be on an upward track all year. We'll see.

If you like my analysis and would like to see more, please take a free subscription at my chartingthemarkets substack, where I publish these posts first.

I also do a premarket video every day on equity indices, bonds, currencies, energies, precious commodities and other commodities at 8.45am EST. If you’d like to see those I post the links every morning on my twitter, and the videos are posted shortly afterwards on my Youtube channel.

Still Searching For Santa

In my last post on Friday I was looking at the support breaks on Dow & Russell and considering the wider implications of those. I was also leaning strongly towards the setup on SPX being a bull flag forming.

Since then a very nice bullish triangle has formed on SPX and, 70% of the time, these will break up towards the target, in this case a retest of the all time high at 6099.97. I wrote the comments on the chart when I posted it on my twitter last night and since then SPX has broken slightly below triangle support, which is a concern, but is rallying well from there so far. Assuming this morning’s low holds, the bullish scenario still looks nice.

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This promising bull setup isn’t alone ………

SPX 15min chart:

On Dow there is now a very nice falling channel, though it is steep and narrow enough that I wouldn’t be surprised to see a rally from here that preceded another leg down. Nonetheless this may be a bull flag channel rather than part of a larger downside pattern.

DIA 15min chart:

The initial bull flag channel on IWM broke down but I now have a decent looking falling megaphone that could also be a bull flag. I’ll be watching this too.

If we see further breaks down from here the picture for the rest of December looks grimmer as the current move up has been mostly tech and I was reading at the weekend that the move up on equity indices since the start of November has been achieved while the majority of index stocks outside NDX have closed down most days.

I’d love to see one more push up into new highs across the board, but we may not see it.

IWM 15min chart:

If we do see a decent move up from here I’m not really looking for much more than high retests on DIA or IWM, but I have more ambitious targets for SPX and NDX, taking them to levels that might then hold as resistance for much or all of next year.

On SPX that target is the obvious resistance trendline for the move up from the 2020 low. That is currently in the 6225 area and, if hit, I’m thinking we might see either a repeat of 2022 as an extended bull flag forms, or a larger high.

SPX weekly chart:

On NDX I am watching possible trendline resistance currently in the 22500, matching the support trendline from the late 2022 low. If seen that might also be a significant high.

NDX weekly chart:

I’m hoping to see more upside on US indices, maybe into Xmas and, if not, then likely into January, though there should be a larger retracement in that period somewhere and that could be starting here.

The closer we come to inauguration the more I’m also going to be looking at the incoming administration and the policies that are being talked about for the first 100 days of the new administration. Tariffs, Ukraine and others may make this one of the most interesting years on the markets that anyone can remember.

Presidential election years tend to be bullish historically, the years after not so much, and equity indices are up a lot over the last two years. I am doubtful about equity markets seeing much upside next year as valuations look very stretched going into a year where the news stream is likely to be turbulent, and interest rates may be on an upward track all year. We'll see.

If you like my analysis and would like to see more, please take a free subscription at my chartingthemarkets substack, where I publish these posts first.

I also do a premarket video every day on equity indices, bonds, currencies, energies, precious commodities and other commodities at 8.45am EST. If you’d like to see those I post the links every morning on my twitter, and the videos are posted shortly afterwards on my Youtube channel.

Waiting For Solana

In my last post on Wednesday I was looking at the bullish leaning setups on Bitcoin (BTCUSD), Ethereum (ETHUSD) and Solana (SOLUSD) Both Bitcoin and Solana had daily RSI 14 sell signals two weeks ago of course, and Ethereum (ETHUSD) also had one fix last week, so now all three have fixed daily RSI 14 sell signals. These are likely signalling a larger retracement coming in the first months of next year, but I’m not expecting to see that in December …. most likely.

On the daily chart Bitcoin had backtested and held the daily middle band last week and I was looking for a new all time high. We saw that over the weekend and Bitcoin is getting close to the 3sd upper band, currently at 108315. That hasn’t been hit yet but, if hit, that may signal the start of another modest consolidation before going higher.

BTCUSD daily chart:

On the hourly chart I have rising support from the November low at 66.8k currently in the 99k area and am wondering whether the next big target might be the channel resistance parallel to that rising support, currently in the 118k area.

BTCUSD 60min chart:

Ethereum backtested the daily middle band on the last retracement and held it. I was saying last Wednesday that the next obvious target was a retest of the 2024 high at 4095.77, reached today, and I have an eye on now the next big target, which is a retest of the 2021 all time high at 4865.94.

ETHUSD daily chart:

On the Ethereum 15min chart last week (not shown) there was a double bottom that had broken up with a target in the 4050 area, which was reached of course, and now that the 4095.77 high has been retested I would note that there is a now possible double top setup here on Ethereum, though I’m not seeing any obvious reason to expect that to play out at the moment.

ETHUSD 60min chart:

Solana has been the problem child over the last few days. I was saying on Wednesday that the daily middle band, which had been holding repeatedly as resistance over the previous ten days, needed to be broken and converted to support to open a retest of the all time high at 264.52, and we haven’t seen that yet, with the rally last week failing at the daily middle band again.

SOLUSD daily chart:

There is still a fixed double bottom target at 237.5 to 240 (shown on the 15min chart in my last post), and either Solana makes that target or it then likely retests the last low at 203.30. If seen that may well be the second low of a larger double bottom with a target on a sustained break over 234.75 at a retest of the all time high.

The current setup on Solana is a high quality bull flag channel and 70% this breaks up now or after a low retest. The 30% break down option is worth a look here though as there is a possible large H&S here (not shown on the chart below) that on a sustained break below 200 would have a target in the 138 area. This isn’t something I’m thinking is likely to play out, but in the event that we were to see a hard break down on equities over the next few days, which I’m really not expecting, that could deliver.

Bull flag channel resistance is now in the 233 area, and a sustained break above looks for a retest of the all time high at 264.52.

SOLUSD 60min chart:

On the bigger picture I’m leaning bullish across the board with the caveat that the fixed daily RSI 14 sell signals on Bitcoin, Solana and Ethereum are warning that a longer and deeper consolidation may be coming within a few weeks. There is always a chance that retracement might arrive earlier, though December would not be an obvious time to see that.

If you’d like to see more of these posts and the other Crypto videos and information I post, please subscribe for free to my Crypto substack.

I do a premarket video every day on Crypto at 9.15am EST. If you’d like to see those I post the links every morning on my twitter, and the videos are posted shortly afterwards on my Youtube channel.

I'm also to be found at Arion Partners, though as a student rather than as a teacher. I've been charting Crypto for some years now, but am learning to trade and invest in them directly, and Arion Partners are my guide around a space that might reasonably be compared to the Wild West in one of their rougher years.

Support Breaks on US Indices

In my last post on Wednesday I was looking at the move up from Tuesday afternoon’s low and noting that the almost complete absence of participation on DIA and IWM was a serious concern, as on a pullback on the tech-led rally, we might then see significant support breaks on Dow and Russell stocks.

At the same time the new inflation figures landed and, not to beat around the bush, they sucked, with a 0.2% rise in inflation led by food prices. The consensus seems to be that the Fed will cut rates this month anyway, but I’m doubtful about that, and regardless of that, the rally in bonds seems to have failed to reach the obvious targets and to be resuming the larger downtrend, so in practical terms interest rates, as delivered in bond yields, are already back on an upward path.

We saw those support breaks yesterday with both DIA and IWM breaking their daily middle bands hard. DIA is currently testing the monthly pivot at 439.13, and next support levels below that are the daily lower band, currently at 433, and a possible H&S neckline at the mid-November low at 429.64. A break below though might well then look for the November low at 416.19, a strong match with rising support from the October 2023 low currently in the same area.

DIA daily chart:

IWM is testing the monthly pivot at 234.90 and, on a break below, the next support levels are at the daily lower band, currently at 237, and the mid-November low at 217.37. Rising support from the Oct 2023 low, currently in the 213 area, could be a target but there’s no current reason to think it is.

IWM daily chart:

SPX hasn’t tested any important support levels yet and the obvious levels below are the daily middle band, currently at 6008, rising support from the August low in the 5950 area, the middle and early November lows at 5853 and 5696 respectively, then the main rising support trendline from the October 2023 low, currently in the 5610 area.

SPX daily chart:

If we are going to see a larger decline there is still a decent case for retesting the all time high on SPX first to set up a small double top.

SPX 15min chart:

There is a possibility that SPX might be forming a larger bull flag channel to set up that high retest. If so the obvious flag support is currently in the 6023 area.

SPX 5min chart:

I’m expecting some more upside on US indices, maybe into Xmas, and if not then likely into January, though there should be a larger retracement in that period somewhere and that could be starting here.

The closer we come to inauguration the more I’m also going to be looking at the incoming administration and the policies that are being talked about for the first 100 days of the new administration. Tariffs, Ukraine and others may make this one of the most interesting years on the markets that anyone can remember. I am doubtful about equity markets seeing much upside next year as valuations look very stretched going into a year where the news stream is likely to be turbulent, and interest rates may be on an upward track all year. We'll see.

If you like my analysis and would like to see more, please take a free subscription at my chartingthemarkets substack, where I publish these posts first.

I also do a premarket video every day on equity indices, bonds, currencies, energies, precious commodities and other commodities at 8.45am EST. If you’d like to see those I post the links every morning on my twitter, and the videos are posted shortly afterwards on my Youtube channel.

Life On Mars

In my post yesterday I was saying that I was expecting SPX to make a low above the 6026 level and the low yesterday was at 6029.89. I was expecting this to be a bullish consolidation and the low established a perfect bull flag channel which broke up with a target at a retest of the all time high at 6099.97. SPX is most of the way to that target.

So far so good.

SPX 5min chart:

QQQ has led the charge to the upside today and has already made a new all time high.

QQQ daily chart:

SPX has broken higher and is most of the way back to a new all time high at the time of writing.

SPX daily chart:

Elsewhere the picture is more cloudy however. The move down was led by DIA and IWM, both of which tested and have held support so far at the daily middle bands. The next obvious targets are retests of the highs on both but so far today both have barely moved off the low. They aren’t going down, but they’ve barely gone up.

The problem with DIA and IWM being on another planet today is that increases the possibility that they are trading sideways through this move, mainly confined to tech stocks, and that after that ends they will resume the downtrend and start doing some significant technical damage. That raises the possibility that the larger retracement that I have pencilled in for late Dec or early Jan could be in progress now, with SPX and NDX topping out here before following the others down.

DIA daily chart:

On IWM the picture is similar, though my eye is drawn to the very nice looking double top that may be about to try to play out if DIA and IWM can’t get off the mat soon.

What I would say here is that there is still a lovely bull flag setup on both RTY and IWM, and until that breaks there is still a very decent chance that will power a strong move into Xmas, but I am concerned about what I’m seeing today.

IWM daily chart:

The US equity indices have finally had a decent run from the 15th November low and in the absence of further evidence to the contrary, I’m expecting more upside into Xmas, and likely into January, though there should be a larger retracement in that period somewhere. I’m watching DIA and IWM very carefully here to see whether that roadmap might fail here.

The closer we come to inauguration the more I’m also going to be looking at the incoming administration and the policies that are being talked about for the first 100 days of the new administration. Tariffs, Ukraine and others may make this one of the most interesting years on the markets that anyone can remember.

I have to be out tomorrow and won’t be back until late in the day. My next premarket video will therefore be on Friday morning.

If you like my analysis and would like to see more, please take a free subscription at my chartingthemarkets substack, where I publish these posts first.

I also do a premarket video every day on equity indices, bonds, currencies, energies, precious commodities and other commodities at 8.45am EST. If you’d like to see those I post the links every morning on my twitter, and the videos are posted shortly afterwards on my Youtube channel.

Watching The Solana Bull Flag

In my last post on Monday I was looking at the possibility that a bull flag channel might well be forming on Solana, and that delivered beautifully. Not everyone saw the post of course as you can see from a tweet I saw last night:

Solana (SOLUSD) reached the daily 3sd lower band, often a good area to look for a reversal, tested that twice and has rejected higher. Key resistance remains at the daily middle band, currently at 236, which has held as resistance at the close each day for the last ten days. That needs to be broken and converted to support to clear the path for Solana to retest the all time high.

CTM Crypto Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

SOLUSD daily chart:

On the 15min chart the possible bull flag channel setup I posted on Monday formed and a double bottom formed at the low retest. That double bottom has now broken up with a target in the 237.5 to 240 area, in effect a retest of bull flag resistance, currently in the 239.5 area.

SOLUSD 15min chart:

On Bitcoin (BTCUSD) I was suggesting last Thursday that the hit of the daily 3sd upper band at 104k might well deliver some consolidation before going higher and we’ve been seeing that.

Bitcoin backtested the daily middle band and held it. The obvious next target would be a retest of the all time high.

BTCUSD daily chart:

On the 15min chart there was no obvious pattern but this was a triangle type contracting bullish consolidation, and declining resistance broke this morning. It’s possible a larger flag could form with a lower low first, but overall that doesn’t seem likely.

BTCUSD 15min chart:

Both Bitcoin and Solana had daily RSI 14 sell signals fix last week of course, and Ethereum (ETHUSD) also had one fix yesterday, so now all three have fixed daily RSI 14 sell signals. These are likely signalling a larger retracement coming in the first months of next year

In the short term Ethereum backtested the daily middle band on this retracement and held it. As long as that remains the case the next obvious target is a retest of the 2024 high at 4095.77, with an eye on the next big target, which is a retest of the 2021 all time high at 4865.94.

ETHUSD daily chart:

On the Ethereum 15min chart a double bottom formed at the low and has broken up with a target in the 4050 area, just below the 2024 high. I’d expect this to at minimum run on into a new 2024 high.

ETHUSD 15min chart:

On the bigger picture I’m leaning bullish across the board with the caveat that the fixed daily RSI 14 sell signals on Bitcoin, Solana and Ethereum are warning that a longer and deeper consolidation may be coming within a few weeks.

I have to be out tomorrow and won’t be back until late in the day. My next premarket video will therefore be on Friday morning.

If you’d like to see more of these posts and the other Crypto videos and information I post, please subscribe for free to my Crypto substack.

I do a premarket video every day on Crypto at 9.15am EST. If you’d like to see those I post the links every morning on my twitter, and the videos are posted shortly afterwards on my Youtube channel.

I'm also to be found at Arion Partners, though as a student rather than as a teacher. I've been charting Crypto for some years now, but am learning to trade and invest in them directly, and Arion Partners are my guide around a space that might reasonably be compared to the Wild West in one of their rougher years.

A Pause For Breath

In my premarket video yesterday morning I was looking at the large number of short term sell signs across the equity indices and making the case for a modest retracement before going higher. We’ve seen that modest retracement and might go a bit lower, but a reversal back up directly from here may be seen instead.

There were three short term patterns on US indices that I was looking at yesterday morning, including double tops on SPX and Dow.

On SPX the double top has reached the minimum target, with the extended target a little lower at 6044.

SPX 5min chart:

On Dow the double top target is in the 44050 area, not quite reached at the morning low but possibly close enough.

INDU 5min chart:

I was looking at the very nice bull flag on RTY yesterday morning as there wasn’t much to see on IWM, but we now have a pretty decent looking bull flag on IWM as well.

This is one reason I’m thinking indices may turn directly back up from here or not far below. A break down on the perfect RTY bull flag channel would open further downside and possible tests of the daily middle bands.

IWM 5min chart:

Is there a case for going lower short term? Well there are still fixed RSI 14 sell signals on the SPX and QQQ hourly charts and we could see some more downside, but this is already the largest retracement at 41 points on SPX since the 57 point decline on 25th November and the largest retracements since this move started at the 15th November low at 5853.01 were the two 63 point declines on 19/20 and 21 November as this move up was starting.

Unless this is a larger consolidation, I would therefore be expecting this move to stay above the 6026 level unless this is a larger retracement looking for either a test of the daily middle band, currently at 5996, or a test of rising support from the Aug 2024 low, currently in the 5920 area.

My lean is that I would expect to see at least a retest of the current all time high before we might see a retracement of that size.

SPX 60min chart:

Here is the fixed sell signal on the NDX hourly chart, and the same applies to NDX.

QQQ 60min chart:

The US equity indices have finally had a decent run from the 15th November low and in the absence of strong evidence to the contrary, I’m expecting more upside into Xmas, and likely into January, though there should be a larger retracement in that period somewhere.

The closer we come to inauguration the more I’m also going to be looking at the incoming administration and the policies that are being talked about for the first 100 days of the new administration. Tariffs, Ukraine and others may make this one of the most interesting years on the markets that anyone can remember.

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