Back in my post on 11th April I called the likely start of a strong rally which we then saw.
Back in my post on 12th May I called for new all time highs on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and laid out possible IHS scenarios on both Solana (SOLUSD) and Ethereum (ETHUSD), looking for ideal right shoulder lows on Solana in the 125.43 area and on Ethereum in the 2074.27 area. That hasn’t gone quite as I drew then but essentially both are still running that scenario, though Ethereum has now reached the IHS target.
Back in my post on 23rd June I called the likely lows on those right shoulders made on Solana at 126.09 and on Ethereum at 2113.65, and was looking for that IHS scenario on both to start to play out.
Back in my post on 18th July I was looking at the IHS that had since broken up on Ethereum and the progress made towards the IHS neckline on Solana.
In my post on 22nd July I was looking for some retracement after the IHS on Solana had broken up, and looking also at the possibility that a setup for a hard fail might form in that retracement.
In my post on 4th Aug I was looking at that retracement on Solana and looking for higher highs soon which we saw. I was expecting Ethereum to reach the IHS target at 4109.05 which we saw.
In my last post on 19th August I was looking at a likely retracement starting on both equities and Crypto and we’ve seen that. There is now a clear inflection point here where Crypto could rally back into retests of the recent highs, or break down further into the next targets.
Looking at the Bitcoin daily chart the first short term support levels for the uptrend were the daily middle band, currently at 116,487, and the 50dma, currently at 116,161. Both of those have been broken, opening up a possible test of the next big level which is the 200dma, currently at 100,604.
BTCUSD daily chart:
On the hourly chart Bitcoin is now testing the double top support at 111.8k that I was looking at on Tuesday. A sustained break below this double top support would look for a target in the 99k to 100k area, just below the 200dma, and just above the June low and possible larger H&S neckline in the 98.3k area.
BTCUSD 60min chart:
On the Solana daily chart the key short term uptrend was and is at the daily middle band, currently at 180.69. That has been tested thoroughly this week and is holding so far.
On a further break down the 50dma is just below at 175, but on a sustained break below that the important support levels would be the 200dma, currently at 157.33, and rising support from the April low, currently in the 150 area.
SOLUSD daily chart:
An oversized H&S has been forming on Solana. I haven’t drawn it in as in my view it is too oversized to be valid, but if it was valid the target would be at a retest of the early August low at 155.81.
As I mentioned in my last post that level is important as there is a clear possible double top setup here on Solana, and on a sustained break below the 155.81 low the double top target range would be 101-4.
I’m really not expecting this to make target unless both equities and Crypto are making a major high here, but I am thinking that we might see a break below 155.81, setting up a rejection back up into a retest of the 209/89 high.
SOLUSD 60min chart:
On Ethereum I was looking at the very obvious target and big support at a test of the daily middle band, currently at 4182.53, supported by the backtests of the March and December 2024 highs at 4092.73 and 4109.05 respectively.
We have seen that backtest with a low this week at 4062.26 and so far this big support area is holding.
ETHUSD daily chart:
On the Ethereum hourly chart I mentioned in my last post a small H&S might be forming, and that completed and broke down with a target in the 3600 area. I am expecting one of two things to happen next.
On the bear side Ethereum could head down to that target, also a test of the 50dma, currently at 3661.54.
On the bull side Ethereum breaks back over the H&S right shoulder high at 4389.57, invalidating the H&S and setting the obvious next target at a retest of the 2025 high at 4792. That is a decision that we should see made today.
ETHUSD 60min chart:
Obviously there is a huge elephant in today’s trading room and that is the Fed at Jackson Hole. There is a lot of optimism about the prospect for rate cuts over coming months but after last week’s bad inflation numbers I am doubtful about that. As a result I am leaning towards a downward resolution from this inflection point but we‘ll see. Everyone have a great weekend :-)
I posted the following note at the end of my post on 13th Jan:
My preferred scenario here is that we see a bullish consolidation either now or soon on Crypto that takes a few months and sets up the next big leg up on Crypto into a possible bull market high in late 2025.
I still like this scenario for a possible overall bull market high on Crypto on or around the end of this year but, as I mentioned at the start, we have currently seen little evidence that Crypto can sustain a bullish move while equities are in a strong downtrend. I’m not seeing any strong evidence yet that the current inflection point on equity indices is the start of a strong downtrend but, if it should evolve into that, Crypto would likely be dragged down with it.
Since I started doing daily videos on Crypto early last year I’ve got Crypto direction right most of the time and more so than any other analyst anywhere that I’m aware of. I’m a very good analyst and all three of these instruments are very classical chartist friendly. I’m not much of a marketer though, and the free Crypto substack I set up last August still has less than 200 readers. I’d like to increase that readership and invite any suggestions on how I could do that.
I am thinking about setting up a second YouTube Crypto channel and recording videos giving likely market direction without requiring the viewers to have some knowlege of technical analysis to understand the videos. Comments on that and other suggestions very welcome.
If you’d like to see more of these posts and the other Crypto videos and information I post, please subscribe for free to my Crypto substack. I also do a premarket video every day on Crypto at 9.05am EST. If you’d like to see those I post the links every morning on my twitter, and the videos are posted shortly afterwards on my Youtube channel.
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